The ban needs to be enacted legislatively after market creation.
What counts:
ban on distilled spirits only
ban for people born after a given date (simmilar to NZ tobacco ban)
extremely restrictive personal quotas (<20% average consumption prior to enactment)
What does not:
increasing drinking age
restricting sales to a small number of outlets
supreme court decision finding the sale of alcohol unconstitutional
anything a country with a theologically driven legislature does
an attempted ban that gets legally overturned before coming into effect
All timeframes:
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2028 for non-religious reasons?23%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2030 for non-religious reasons?24%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2036 for non-religious reasons?30%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2045 for non-religious reasons?54%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2060 for non-religious reasons?52%
Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2100 for non-religious reasons?60%
See also:
Will any country legalize recreational use of benzodiazepines before 2100?62%
Will any country legalize recreational use of opioids before 2100?69%
(and other timeframes)
1,000
3.00Presumably this is excluding counties that have already done so?
What if a country that already bans alcohol splits into two countries?
@CodeandSolder Ah, ok, I think I understand your intent now.
What about if a Muslim-majority country that doesn't currently ban alcohol imposes an alcohol ban, doesn't say it's for religious reasons, but everybody thinks it was largely for religious reasons? Is it a case of "market creator's judgement" or "official wording of the ban"?
@Fion my intent is somewhere around "the legality of alcohol is clearly inconsistent with policy patterns and while it seems commonly accepted changing it is a bad idea the events around tobacco show legislatures to be more courageous than expected"
Market creator's judgement, with a significant majority unlikely to count.
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What is this?
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