How many successful SpaceX launches in October 2025 UTC

Ṁ12k

Oct 31

0.7%

12 or less

0.8%

0.9%

18%

79%

0.8%

0.6%

18 or more

Resolves to number of successful launches of all variants of orbital launch vehicles on Nextspaceflight's Manifest Page.
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/past/?search=SpaceX
in September UTC.

If that page is demonstrably wrong or out of date, then I will either wait for update or a correct source will be decided upon and used as a replacement.

A launch is considered successful if it is outlined in green on the linked manifest page.

Launches outlined with red (failure) or orange (partial failure) will not count as successful.

(Starship is considered an orbital launch vehicle, regardless of true orbit not being demonstrated. However, it wasn't having much success this year until recently.)

November 20225 market

Update 2025-10-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment edited by creator): Launches on October 31st will be counted towards the resolution, even though the market closes at 23:59:00 UTC on that date. The close time set earlier 30th was set to allow for potential early resolution if no launches were planned near the end of the month, but the market has been extended to allow trading until after later of no more launches are planned and launches that have happened are clearly successful or not. So I may wait for confirmation of payload deploy of last launch in month before resolving.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1 successfully done in first 3 days of October
8 more with planned dates by Oct 15

That is a fast pace, includes a starship launch, and there is scope for delays - tight turnaround times and drone ships currently cooped up in port re ex Hurricane Imelda and unclear how soon they will be able to leave.

Edit: ASOG seems to have left port 2025-10-04 07:34 (UTC-4) quite early for Starlink 10-59 on 7th Oct

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3 successfully done in first 8 days of October
9 more with planned dates by Oct 22 (includes a starship)

5 successfully done in first 14 days of October
8 more with planned dates by Oct 25 but that is very tightly packed and there could be delays that have occurred but not yet been fully adjusted for on that schedule.

7 successfully done in first 16 days of October
6 more with planned dates by Oct 25 but that seems too tightly packed and there likely have been delays that have not yet been fully reflected in the later dates on that schedule.

9 successfully done in first 19 days of October
6 more with planned dates by Oct 28 maybe still too tightly packed?

11 successfully done in first 24 days of October
5 more with planned dates by Oct 30 little in the way of delays to tightly packed schedule so far but will that continue or might Tropical Storm Melisa become a hurricane and get close enough to affect drone ship recoveries?

@ChristopherRandles The 16th SpaceX flight is scheduled for October 31st, 19:44 UTC, from Vandenberg. This is after this market closes. Is this an off by one error, an early close to avoid last minute trades, or is the 31st simply not going to be counted?

@SpaceCan I am definitely counting 31st. I set it a little earlier to indicate I may resolve it early if it is clear a day or two before it ends if none are planned. With one planned on 31st I extend the market and have done so now you have pointed out the delay which I hadn't seen until you posted. Thanks

November 2025 market

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