Will the next new apostle in the LDS church be of non-US nationality?
Will the next new apostle in the LDS church be of non-US nationality?
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24% seemed low based on my checking the nationalities of the first 50 (out of 104) general authority seventies listed at https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/learn/quorum-of-the-seventy?lang=eng. (I forget the exact number, but it was around 28/50 from the US, which would mean about 44% non-US-born.) Newly ordained apostles are frequently (though not necessarily) chosen from this pool.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
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Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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