Discussed briefly in the "We can do better" section of Holden Karnofsky's blog post: "How we could stumble into AI catastrophe".
Resolves positively if:
Holden himself publicly claims that this specific illustrative scenario has already come to pass
Multiple news organizations report generally that AI development standards have been developed and are being enforced internationally
My personal friends that are most well-acquainted with AI agree with me that this question should resolve positively
1,000
3.00There are more than 25 countries that have laws mandating that they follow US regulatory decisions on things like medical devices. So it's more likely this will be achieved through deference than cooperation.
Can you please confirm if you intend to resolve yes or no given the EU adopts AI development standards?
@RobertCousineau While still pointing to the resolution guidelines in the description, yes I think AI development guidelines developed & enforced by the EU would suffice.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00