Macron activates article 16 of the French constitution (exceptional powers) before the end of 2024
Basic
7
Ṁ230
Dec 31
9%
chance

Resolves Yes, if, anytime before the end of day on December 31st 2024, Emmanuel Macron (french president) invokes article 16 of the french constitution, for any length of time. This article relates to exceptional powers, to be activated in case of a "serious and immediate threat to institutions, independence/territorial integrity, or the execution of international agreements". Resolves No otherwise at the end of year.

Since article 16 must be "announced to the nation", which in our days is likely to be a TV speech, I don't foresee ambiguities in resolution. As long as the president announces the usage of article 16 in such address to the nation, this resolves Yes, even if later legal challenges or debate occurs regarding whether this was a legal invokation, which is any case is likely to occurs because this is constitutional lawyers' dream scenario to be relevant for once :p

For reference, article 16 of the constitution (in French) :

https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/article_lc/LEGIARTI000019241008

Non-binding flavor text: This article was invoked a total of 1 time, by Charles de Gaulle during an attempted putsch in what was at the time French Algeria ("Putsch des généraux"). It is purely a decision of the president. The article grants full powers, apart from dissolving the parliament and changing the constitution, and only with the goal of restoring normal functioning of the institutions, though the paucity of use and caselaw makes its application unclear in practice.

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