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Interesting price action going on!

@Cactus how long will you wait for revisions?

@chrisjbillington I will wait until the 3rd estimate for Q4 2024 is released, which should be sometime around the end of March 2025, plus some delay for FRED to reflect the updated figure.

Will you resolve early if the third estimate of Q3 2024 shows positive growth?

No because there may be revisions

EDIT: check below comments

Uh, to clarify - if Q1, Q2, and Q3 are all positive than it will end up resolving No eventually?

If Q1, Q2, and Q3 are all positive after the 3rd revision (which I think is the final one?) then yeah it should resolve to NO, could probably be done early in that case

Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Looks like Q3 3rd estimate is set to release on December 19, at which point I may resolve early if it's positive and Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2024 (Third Estimate) (set to release on Sept 26) is also positive

For where? UK, USA, Europe, Asia, China, Russia, etc?

@DanielPugh USA

@Cactus might be an idea to mention that, as otherwise would assume it included a recession in any country, which would change the odds...if e.g. there is a recession in Russia or Argentina...

@DanielPugh I added the FRED link which should make things less ambiguous

@Cactus Can you add US to the title? Manifold is a prediction website used by people all over the world

So this happened in 2020 and in 2022 but before that it must have been 2008/2009?

@SophusCorry yeah