Resolves YES if the price of bitcoin hits 300,000 USD before the close date. To be resolved by CoinMarketCap price, or whatever other suitable source I can find if that site shuts down.
1,000
3.00I don't like so long dated markets but well, at least it's gonna resolve before 2030
47% chance of hitting 300k (for however short a time) is implying an ev of 150k, which is a CAGR of (150/26)^(1/16.33)-1 = 11%
@JonathanRay Is this just thinking randomly, or are trying to judge the probability here based on the implied recommendation?
It seems to me obviously true (without any calculation) that buying Bitcoin with the plan of holding it for years is very high expected value at its current price. So the fact that the probabilities here imply the same thing after calculation is not evidence against them.
Related markets, designed to represent about the same rate of growth (about 15.57% per year)
What is this?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00