When will a Mission: Impossible film be released without Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt?
When will a Mission: Impossible film be released without Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt?
Plus
29
Ṁ25512026
1%
By 2025
22%
By 2030
60%
By 2035
86%
By 2040
Resolves YES for all years at or above the first year in which a Mission Impossible movie is released without Tom Cruise playing Ethan Hunt, and NO for other years. For a movie to count, it has to be made with a budget comparable to that of the current movies.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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