📢✊ In what countries will mass public protests start in 2025?

Plus

156

Ṁ21k

Nov 30

98%

Australia

98%

South Korea

80%

Israel II (after March)

69%

Madagascar

68%

Morocco

63%

Serbia

60%

Lebanon

57%

United States III (after June / beyond No Kings)

38%

Mexico

37%

Bolivia

34%

Germany II (after May)

32%

Georgia

21%

Pakistan

18%

malawi

15%

Ivory Coast

15%

Vietnam

15%

Syria

14%

Ukraine (added Aug)

14%

Canada

11%

Egypt

Resolved monthly throughout 2025 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:

https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en

It’s impossible to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.

Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2025 with no protests that large.

Once resolved, countries can’t be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.

Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Germany, which has been re-added to the market after previous protests:
- It will resolve YES if another mass protest with >10,000 participants begins.
- This qualifying protest must start in May 2025 or thereafter.

Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Rallies in favor of policies or governance do not count as qualifying protests.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ2 NO

This is how I see Madagascar:

September 25th: protests start2025 Malagasy protests - Wikipedia
12th October: coup

13th October: former President fled the country
17th October: interim President announced
20th October to 30th November: no further events listed in Wikipedia article. ChatGPT doesn't find any evidence of additional protests in the press
as of 30th November: the Cargenie entry already reflects the outcome of October 17th, so I assume they already counted the participants until October, but they list the protest in the range >1k <10k

Do you have any data that I miss? For the 90% chances of Cargenie updating to >10k

bought Ṁ400 YES

Shout Korea should resolve YES

bought Ṁ150 YES

Hi,

Australia should resolve YES

bought Ṁ50 YES

Hi,

shouldn't this resolve YES?

@MiguelLM hmm yes

@BlueDragon can you edit the answers to specify the start date?

For example:
United States III - July or later
instead of
United States III

It is a bit messy to go through all the comments to figure out the start date for each option

bought Ṁ10 NO

@MiguelLM yep, done

Can we get an answer on if adding countries with ongoing mass public protests counts? It's nearing end of the season.

Cameroon

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cx2k4w58w91t

@FecalAbhuman should resolve if ongoing protests count

If I add an option but the protests are already ongoing how does that work? Would it require another protest movement to resolve yes?

Why did it close early?

@FecalAbhuman please read market description. The protest tracker is updated monthly. The schedule is not consistent. There is also an explanation for ongoing protests, to avoid the obvious tautological problems with resolving yes in an ongoing situation every month.