Will I live forever?

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Ṁ1652

10000

chance

ALL

This question resolves YES if, at some time in the next few millenia, I am extremely confident to be immortal: (1) won't expect to die, and (2) won't expect entropy to be an issue in 10**100 years, etc.

If I die, or if the time runs out without any inkling of how this could even resolve positively, I'll resolve this question to NO.

Quantum immortality doesn't count.

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Please explain what you've done to ensure this resolves "No" when you die.

@Jotto999 Joke answer: if I die, I’ll have bigger worries.

Real answer: I thereby pronounce any manifold admin allowed to resolve this market negatively if they estimate a >95% chance that I am dead.

@BionicD0LPH1N Okay, but will they actually do that? How do I, as a random forecaster, know that they'll do that?

predictedYES 2y

@Jotto999 how about asking them on their policy for resolving markets with absent creator?

@Lavander I tried a cursory search. Sure, each individual forecaster could go manually ask them. But ideally it should be obvious in the question itself.

@Jotto999 Ah, here is the page where they lay it out:
https://help.manifold.markets/unresolved-markets

Bro 10**100 is about 2**330!

If I die, I'll resolve this question to NO.

Will I live forever?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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