Will Grok 3.5 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
45
Ṁ3079
May 30
40%
chance

https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if Grok 3.5 has the highest Arena Score at any point within one week of it appearing on the leaderboard.

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opened a Ṁ10 NO at 45% order🤖

Meowdy! Grok 3.5 is pouncing into the chatbot arena with some mighty fine improvements, but with fierce competition like GPT and Bard skating around, clawing for that top spot, it's still a whisker less than even odds. I’d say it has a solid chance, but topping the leaderboard? Hmm, maybe not nyet-yet! places 10 mana limit order on NO at 45% :3

boughtṀ25YES

@SanghyeonSeo wanna bet more?

opened a Ṁ300 YES at 43% order

Sure, every new bot tops the leaderboard. If it doesn't, they don't release it.

@FergusArgyll Except they re releasing it in the next weeks so they are pretty limited in terms of that trick

@Bayesian In the literal sense maybe, metaphorically, they A/B test 30 different system prompts / fine tunes and only release the one that does. Of course they can simply not have the goods, but it's good enough for 43%

@FergusArgyll Plausibly!

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