Which Benchmarks will OpenAI show results from GPT-5 on, when it is announced?

Plus

Ṁ3302

2026

90%

GPQA

87%

SWE-Bench

82%

SimpleQA

67%

ARC-AGI-2

58%

HumanEval

48%

MMLU

38%

MATH

35%

Big-Bench-Hard

31%

MGSM

19%

DROP

GSM8K

Some flexibility on variations of specific benchmarks. eg SWE-Bench-Hard would resolve SWE-Bench YES.

Update 2025-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The benchmarks must be those that GPT-5 is benchmarked against by OpenAI.

Must be on roughly the same day / during / around the time of the announcement. If there are several announcements over multiple days, all those times are acceptable for the purpose of this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ10 NO

you mean benchmarked by OpenAI?

@JoshYou yeah

Surely ARC !?

https://arcprize.org/

@bbb I can't add options, I might create a duplicate where i can in a bit.

bought Ṁ30 NO

@bbb Idk if i was actually able to change the settings back then but since then ive learned how to do it, so added arc agi 2

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