By 2030, Europeans can buy a 4-door electric vehicle with 350km range for under €23k
By 2030, Europeans can buy a 4-door electric vehicle with 350km range for under €23k
➕
Plus
12
Ṁ519
2030
84%
chance

  • Under €23 000 inflation adjusted to 2023 prices using the HICP - Overall index (this will probably mean a Jan 1 2030 price of about €26 000-€28 000 in contemporaneous prices)

  • after any government incentives are applied

I mean something competitive with combustion engines for the average driver, so I define it like:

  • must have four doors--two in the front and two in the back (so no Mini Cooper SE)

  • must go for at least 350 km (2023 mini cooper also fails this one)

  • must be road-legal

  • must be readily available, with consumers actually purchasing cars, so at least 10 000 year-to-date purchases, or at least 2 500 purchases in the latest quarter

  • new vehicles only

  • top speed over 100 km/h

#Science
#Climate
#EV
#Automotive
#Electric Vehicles
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9mo

What metric are you using for range?

predictedNO 1y

i just resolved this similar US market positive so I expect the EU market resolution isn't far away! https://manifold.markets/B/by-2030-americans-can-buy-a-4door-e

1y

What does 200mi range mean? Asking for a European 😇

1y

@AnttiRasinen 320km

predictedNO 1y

@AnttiRasinen I have just changed the distance in the title from 200mi to 350km, to align with what the fine print already says. Apologies to anyone who missed the fine print text before.

1y

Dacia Spring is nearly there? Didn't check all the constraints in detail.

1y

@marktweise EV database gives it a "real range" of 145 km, which is probably a third of the range of a typical combustion engine vehicle and well below the range I defined above.

I have to say I don't know how much this matters in the European market, but I think in the US context this would be a significant limiting factor for widespread adoption. I'm sure it does have a market of some kind. But I tried to define this market to ask whether you'll get a real combuston-engine-killer, so to speak, and due to the range, this doesn't look like it, to me.

https://ev-database.org/car/1705/Dacia-Spring-Electric-45

Dacia Spring Electric 45
All details and specs of the Dacia Spring Electric 45 (2022). Compare price, lease, real-world range and consumption of every electric vehicle.

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