What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?

Will Jeremy Nixon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?

What is your P(doom) right now? (used to resolve end of 2025 question)

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will Jose Luis Ricon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?