Will a uk general election be called in the latter six months of 2024?
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Ṁ11k
Dec 31
1.7%
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Ṁ1,000
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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

As far as I've understood "calling an election" refers to the prime ministers request on dissolving the parliament. The election was called 24th of May and the election was held on 4th of July.

Thus the election was called before the latter six months of 2024.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/22/why-is-rishi-sunak-calling-a-general-election-now-and-what-happens-next

@sortwie Pretty rogue move to make the 1000M bet in the opposite direction to the consensus interpretation of all the other market participants before checking the interpretation with the market creator first! 😅

On a more serious note, the creator appears to be inactive and there's an argument that this market is ambiguous. Would any @mods be willing to arbitrate? I strongly agree with @TeemuKovanen above that the election was "called" in May, therefore doesn't trigger YES resolution, but I am strongly biased by my position.

Yeah, your article was posted in May. Called for, not in.

The UK media consistently describes the election as having been "called" in May, based on all of that it appears teemu's interpretation is correct

One could also say that the election was called in July, as the term is used by journalists from US or Australia on other occasions. As a non-native speaker I followed those examples. My bad...

Yeah, often the use of terms within specific disciplines or social groups differs from or specializes the terms' general meaning, and there's not really much you can do about that besides ask people to write better markets

@Fion I apologize for the "rogue" move. After realizing that the market creator has not answered a two months old request for clarification, the fact that the number of YES holders war ~50% larger convinced me.

Clarification needed here: if it was called today (or any day before the end of June) to take place in July, would this resolve NO?

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