I am lucky to be fairly isolated from the impacts of government policy, the economy, etc. I am a straight, white male with center left politics, openly critical of Trump. I live in a studio in the south SF Bay Area. I work in-office daily for a software infrastructure company about 5 miles away. A number of my friends/coworkers are here on visas. My yearly income is several times my cost of living and I have years of runway. I'm happy to provide additional details if they seem useful.
So the question is: When/will Trump's policies impact my life in a way that I can't ignore (tangible) or avoid (voluntary?)
Tangible meaning it has to impact my life physically in some way. If I lose money in the stock market, that doesn't count as tangible unless I lose so much money that I can't afford my current lifestyle.
Involuntary meaning I don't choose for it to happen. If I take part in a protest, that wouldn't count because I didn't have to do that. This also includes impacts which can be trivially avoided. For example, if a walking trail on federal land closes due to the shutdown, that won't count because I can just go somewhere else.
Here are some things that might count:
A friend or coworker I interact with at least weekly is deported
A coworker I regularly interact with loses their job or leaves the company due to Trump's policies somehow
Goods that I regularly consume become unavailable
Protestors interfere with my life in some way (e.g. blocking my commute)
My job changes significantly or I lose it
A government shutdown causes some service I rely on to halt
It's difficult to make this completely rigorous but hopefully you get the gist of it.
It's also possible that this has already happened and without me thinking of it explicitly. If someone suggests or points out a way this might happen and I realize it already did, I will resolve the market to "2025."
If I don't judge that this has occurred, the market resolves when Trump's term ends.
Edit with additional information: I have a college degree and don't plan to get another. I don't expect to buy a house or have children within this period. I may try to find a relationship partner or move out of the Bay Area during this period.
1,000
3.00@WilliamGunn never been in a relationship, use dating apps sometimes. I don't expect to have kids or buy a house within the next four years. The only major life change I can see myself making before this market resolves is moving out of the Bay Area.
@WilliamGunn yes, but losing them by itself would probably not be enough to force a lifestyle change. As mentioned in the description, just losing money on paper does not count as tangible until there's something I would buy but can't afford.
@AndrewMaxwell So this isn't really about impacts on your trajectory, but more instantaneous, in-the-moment impact?
@WilliamGunn you could say that, but changes to my trajectory are likely to cause tangible impacts eventually (maybe not before the market resolves.)