This market asks which scenario will occur by December 31, 2025, regarding President Trump's tariff policies and economic outcomes.

Definitions:

• Recession: Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth

• Removal of tariffs: Tariffs reduced to well below 10% for most countries, effectively ending the trade war

The market will resolve to the option that occurs by the end of 2025. If none of the scenarios occur exactly as described, the market will resolve N/A.

Resolution will be based on official GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) and tariff policies as documented by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (https://ustr.gov/).