Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2026?

Plus

Ṁ24k

2027

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence before the end of 2026. It doesn't count if he is held while awaiting trial or sentencing. House arrest also doesn't count, it must be an official prison. However, it DOES count if he is held in prison awaiting execution or similar.

Resolves NO otherwise

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

Get

1,000

and

3.00

4 Comments

43 Holders

119 Trades

Sort by:

Question. Does Trump need that all juros in the D.C. trial to condem him as gulty?

@MP Yes, US now requires unanimous juries (and federal government did even before a recent Supreme Court dexision). Generally, failure to reach unanimity is a mistrial and the prosecution can try again if desired.

@Jason Are all crimes like that?

Created a market that includes home confinement, which I think is more likely given practical problems with his entitlement to Secret Service protection:

Will Trump be sentenced by any US criminal court to a term of incarceration or home confinement by 12/2026?

50% chance. I included home confinement in part because of the practical problems of sentencing someone statutorily entitled to Secret Service protection to prison. Any sentence based on conviction in a criminal case counts. Pretrial confinement does not count (although this would be extremely unli…

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

What is this?

Related questions

What is this?

Related questions