When will Magnus Carlsen retire from competitive chess?
When will Magnus Carlsen retire from competitive chess?
Basic
11
Ṁ241Jan 21
9%
2025
11%
2026
11%
2027
12%
2028
12%
2029
10%
2030
34%Other
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bought Ṁ1 2025 YES3mo
With his current feud with FIDE, if he doesn't play anymore FIDE tourneys and just plays freestyle chess and maybe chess .com would that be sufficient to resolve to 2025?
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
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Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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