 want to commit to specific prices? we now know eoy23 valuations for both 

 Anthropic sought to raise with a valuation of $18.4 billion in December 2023, which was accepted when the round closed a few weeks later. So $18.4 billion for Anthropic.

OpenAI sought a secondary sale with a valuation of $80 billion in October of 2023, which was accepted February 2024. So $80 billion for OpenAI. 

Before I lock in these numbers, does anyone have better numbers they think I should use?

Not quite sure I understand what this is asking. Does this resolve to YES if either OpenAI or Anthropic ever has a lower valuation between now and the end of 2030 than it did at the end of 2023?

 Yes, that's correct. I'll look for the most credible valuation for both at the end of 2023. For example, let's say $80 billion for OpenAI and $18.4 billion for Anthropic. If at any time either company has a credible valuation that drops below that, I'll resolve YES. 

Edit: The old question was if either company would have a downround. 

OpenAI or Anthropic could have another round, at an even higher valuation, and then a downround after, which is still higher than their Oct 2023 valuations. So maybe I should change the question to will OpenAI or Anthropic have a lower valuation than their Oct 2023 valuations? I like both questions, so I'm not sure.

 I changed the question to more closely track the definition of overvalued.

 by Pedro Domingos and thought to myself, "one of those things is an implicit prediction." 

These values will be used as the 2023 benchmarks for resolving the market, subject to revision if credible alternative figures are provided before finalization.

Related questions

Related questions