Will a spacecraft achieve a stable orbit around a star other than the Sun prior to 2200?
Will a spacecraft achieve a stable orbit around a star other than the Sun prior to 2200?
➕
Plus
11
Ṁ201
2199
28%
chance

This question resolves as "YES" if a spacecraft acheives a stable orbit within the Hill Sphere of a star other than the sun prior to January 1st 2200. Merely passing through the Hill Sphere without decelerating into orbit, as with the Breakthough Starshot and Daedalus proposed interstellar missions, does not count. The spacecraft must be built by human civilization or a descendant - detecting an alien spacecraft in another star system would not qualify.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

I’d love to be proven wrong! Great great great grandkids, come to my grave and let me know.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules