What will happen at Trump's military parade on June 14th in DC?
36
แน1943Jun 15
92%
Trump compliments himself
80%
Trump mentions Biden in a speech
70%
Trump gives a speech exceeding 30 minutes
68%
Trump congratulates himself to his birthday
62%
At least 50 protestors are arrested
54%
Number of protestors is estimated to be 100,000 or more
46%
Teargas is used
31%
Trump mentions Elon Musk in a speech
21%
At least one drone attacks the parade
19%
Parade is cancelled
18%
A bridge is damaged by a tank
16%
Someone dies
10%
At least 500 protestors are arrested
9%
Assasination Attempt Thwarted (staged or real)
To make it easy to resolve these I'll give both ChatGPT and Perplexity the market description and ask how the answers should resolve. If they disagree I'll ask Gemini. If the llms refuse to make a decisive choice I'll resolve the answer N/A.
I'll use whatever the standard model is that comes without a paid plan and has web access. I'll resolve no sooner than the 15th so that adequate data can appear online.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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