China will submit to voluntary caps on compute used in AI training runs by end of 2025

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Ṁ6911

2025

chance

ALL

Folks like @pauseAI and @ai_in_check and other "Doomers" suggest that China is already more regulated than the west when it comes to AI.

This questions resolves to yes if China submits to voluntary inspections regimes of their public and private AI facilities in accordance with compute / memory caps imposed by an international AI regulatory body by the end of 2025.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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#AI Regulation

#🇨🇳 China

#China Taiwan potential conflict

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2030 market https://manifold.markets/AlexanderLeCampbell/china-will-submit-to-voluntary-caps-POZdPlEyA

predictedNO

What happens if China agrees to all of that but no actual inspections happen until 2026?

Is that a yes or no resolution?

For this question to resolve yes, not only does an international AI regulatory body need to exist, china ALSO needs to submit not only to caps proposed by such a body but ALSO to inspections of private AND public AI facilities, ALL by the end of 2025?

This sure seems unlikely.

I'm at <10% here.

I also expect at >98% to die without international compute limits, and <96% with, so let's do this even though it'll likely fail 🤷

So if they implement them on their own stuff this resolves yes?

@NathanpmYoung yes

Is this conditional on such an international regulatory body being created and imposing compute/memory caps?

predictedNO

@kcs Why would it?

Unconditional for now. If you want to make a conditional prob mkt go ahead we can short that too

Related to this twitter thread

https://twitter.com/ai_in_check/status/1716598064696250596?s=46&t=q-Ds0aJ7frdEfqZMJVfhJA

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