By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?
By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?
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15
Ṁ3382026
5%
get enough sleep
0.6%
write note files/.txt files/gdocs/other single document to describe what you hope to get out of each experiment, before you run it
0.2%
seek worst case bounds, but distrust them
9%
Stress less about general image and status
0.2%
Mark's post on how to do theoretical research: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zbFGRRWPwxBwjwknY/how-to-do-theoretical-research-a-personal-perspective-1
0.1%
Do more experiments. Develop research intimacy and intuition
40%
Intentful bodily care (sleep, water, and light exercise)
24%
Careful tracking of burnout and allocating time and resources to explicit relaxation
22%
This is a free response market. You should either vote on or submit meaningful advice (or both).
At the end of 2025, I will select a piece of advice from these responses that I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher.
The advice does not have to be original, but originality helps.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The worst case bounds answer led me to this post by Buck: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yTvBSFrXhZfL8vr5a/worst-case-thinking-in-ai-alignment#My_list_of_reasons_to_maybe_use_worst_case_thinking
By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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