Will @Mira do anything publicly impressive with AI agents by EOY 2026?
Will @Mira do anything publicly impressive with AI agents by EOY 2026?
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@Mira_ keeps hinting at their work on X, and I genuinely want to know if there will be a public payoff before the end of the year in 2026.
Some things that might resolve this market YES:
Mira reveals that an AI swarm of X accounts run by them garnered more than like 10 million impressions in a month
Mira releases an agent product or library which I judge to be SOTA in some respect on the merits
Mira reveals that AI agents running autonomously (or with limited assistance) are making them outsized returns (say, >$50K in a month, not in crypto, nor in any consumer AI application not created by the agents, nor in a gimmick)
Something else which I find roughly as impressive as these, on an I-know-it-when-I-see-it basis
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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