Will one of the July 2023 Atlas Fellows Become A billionaire by the age of 30?
Will one of the July 2023 Atlas Fellows Become A billionaire by the age of 30?
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"A billionaire" is defined by having a net worth > 1 Billion USD, in July 30th, 2023 inflation adjusted dollars. This question resolves to yes if any of the 32 members of the July session become a billionaire before they turn 31 years old. The duration of this net worth can be whatever, but all valuations need to be credible. For example, if a Fellow mints 500M crypto tokens and sells 10 of them at 2$ each, this doesn't count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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