What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?
What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?
Plus
16
Ṁ3932050
73%
Colossal Biosciences goes out of business without officially canceling the project
55%
Colossal Biosciences announces they are canceling the project
45%
giving "birth" to a living woolly mammoth
38%
growing an elephant or mammoth fetus in an artificial womb
36%
creation of a functional artificial womb
26%
mammoth living to >1 years of age
22%
breeding pair of mammoths
20%
releasing a mammoth into the wild, or a preserve larger than a few acres
Context: Colossal Biosciences wants to de-extinct the woolly mammoth and re-introduce it into the wild. https://colossal.com/mammoth/
My assumption is that all of these achievements would be reported on and easy to verify. But since some of them are prerequisites for others, they could resolve YES without explicit reporting.
I won't bet on this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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