What will be the results of Israel's next election?
What will be the results of Israel's next election?
Basic
7
Ṁ1852026
69%
Netanyahu is not elected
66%
> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)
66%
A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold
50%
> 40 women elected
35%
A single list gets more than 30 seats
34%
More valid votes in Tel Aviv than in Jerusalem
Feel free to add answers, but only for the election results and Knesset members, not the government. Invalid answers will be resolved to NA.
Will resolve upon final, official results.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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