This market resolves YES if Guan Heng is deported from the United States to China or removed from the US to China through any official government action by June 30, 2026. This includes deportation orders, removal proceedings, or extradition. The market resolves NO if he remains in the United States or is granted asylum or other legal status that prevents removal. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from U.S. immigration authorities (ICE, USCIS, or federal courts) or credible news reporting of his deportation/removal.

Background

In August 2025, Guan Heng was arrested by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement in upstate New York for "illegal entry" and is held in Broome County Correctional Facility facing deportation threats. He arrived in the United States in 2021 after sailing from the Bahamas to Florida. In 2020, Guan Heng secretly documented large-scale detention compounds in Xinjiang, producing rare visual evidence that corroborated survivor testimonies and was later shared with journalists including BuzzFeed News' Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative team. He is facing deportation not because his asylum application was rejected but solely due to the way he entered the country. He is awaiting a court hearing in New York scheduled for December 15.

Considerations

Returning Guan Heng to China would place him at serious risk of imprisonment, torture, or enforced disappearance due to his efforts to document state abuses and cooperation with international media, which would likely trigger retaliation under China's broad national security laws. House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi has urged the Department of Homeland Security to grant him asylum.