This market predicts whether the Netherlands will successfully implement a fully regulated cannabis supply chain for its coffee shops by September 8, 2025.

The Netherlands is currently piloting a model for a closed cannabis supply chain to address the "back door problem" where coffee shops can legally sell cannabis but cannot legally source it.

Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if the Netherlands officially implements nationwide regulations for the entire cannabis supply chain (cultivation, distribution, and sale) for coffee shops by September 8, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

References:

• https://pipphorticulture.com/european-cannabis-markets-overview/

  Background

  The Netherlands has long maintained a policy of tolerance toward cannabis, allowing its sale in licensed "coffee shops" while technically prohibiting production and wholesale distribution. This creates the "backdoor problem" or "backdoor policy" where coffee shops can legally sell cannabis but cannot legally source it.

  In response to this contradiction, the Dutch government initiated the "Closed Coffee Shop Chain Experiment" (Wietexperiment) to test a fully regulated cannabis supply chain. This experiment involves ten municipalities where participating coffee shops will only be allowed to sell cannabis from licensed producers starting April 7, 2025.

  Resolution Criteria

  This market resolves YES if by September 8, 2025:

  • The Netherlands implements nationwide regulations (not just in pilot municipalities) governing the entire cannabis supply chain

  • These regulations cover cultivation, distribution, and retail sale to coffee shops

  • The system is officially implemented and operational (not just announced or partially implemented)

  This market resolves NO if:

  • The nationwide implementation does not occur by September 8, 2025

  • Only partial regulations are implemented (e.g., covering only certain aspects of the supply chain)

  • The regulations remain limited to pilot municipalities rather than nationwide

  • The implementation is postponed beyond the specified date

  Considerations

  The current experimental phase is scheduled to run for approximately four years in just ten municipalities, starting April 2025. A nationwide rollout by September 2025 would represent a significant acceleration of the current timeline. Coffee shops and growers have already expressed concerns about supply chain readiness, including issues with product quality, quantity, and diversity, which could impact implementation timelines.