Current ISW map:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 December 7th, very little change.

Frontline Update, Deepstate claims that 586 square km are under Ukraine's control, however, ISW (Institute of the Study of War) claims more territory is under Russian control. I have both area maps and the links below. https://deepstatemap.live/en#9/51.1715943/35.1672363 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb

sorry for the gap in updates, i had to find a new credible map since liveuamap was not updating that reigon

Apparently Manifold created a cash version of this market. It sucks that anyone outside U.S. including myself is excluded from part of this website and it makes me not want to participate in the future 👎

@nikstar I share this sentiment. Must be especially aggravating when they 'sweepify' your market!

@NicoDelon why would this be more likely now?

@datachef I'm guessing Trump getting elected ups the odds that Ukraine will negotiate and possibly withdraw from Kursk(?)

@ThomasEstabrook I'm betting that won't happen until Trump is actually in office. So if anything, they'll want to hold on to what they have in Kursk as a bargaining chip.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yeah I agree -- just speculating on why someone might buy yes right now

@datachef why would this be less likely now?

@NicoDelon well for one they are using North Koreans rather than Russians. That eliminates any advantage of being in Russia and familiar with the territory, people, etc. Biden is gonna load Ukraine up with everything he can muster over the next few months. Etc.

@datachef But see, there is too much uncertainty and you betting it down makes it cheaper for me to bet it up.

@ThomasEstabrook Can only speak for myself, but I bought YES yesterday after a Ukrainian legislator suggested that Syrsky was making excuses for a withdrawal from Kursk. She has no inside knowledge but it was somewhat persuasive speculation

Does this include if North Korea does it?

@Pjfkh yes

Frontline update, Russia has gained 50 square miles according to liveua map in last 23 days

https://liveuamap.com/en/time/23.10.2024

Russia gains 1 mile near Novoianovka on 29th

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/11/7479169/

Polymarket on this question. A bit higher chance of removal (34 vs 25)

https://polymarket.com/event/will-ukraine-hold-kursk-through-2024

Polymarket | Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukrainian forces maintain control of any part of the Kursk Oblast of Russia, through 11:59 PM ET on Decembe...

Currently occupying 850 sq km. https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-captures-garrison-town-breakthrough-114828922.html

Ukraine captures garrison town in new breakthrough in Kursk

Ukrainian forces have captured a garrison town as they opened a new front in the southern Russian region of Kursk.

Not sure why this is up to 37% when Ukraine controls a strip of 11 km across a river with no bridges since late Aug as shown by the twitter this resolves from:

@Kfredric my thinking is that while Russia doesn't seem too pressed to get it back Ukraine doesn't benefit that much from continuing to hold it either.

@EmanuelRylke Not saying your theory is wrong but I was thinking 37% was too high for having to both retake everything and that small region.

@Kfredric TBH I’m really not happy with this tiny strip of land impacting the resolution of this market. When it was created, Ukraine zone of control was one contiguous territory and I didn’t expected them overtaking some irrelevant piece of no man’s land.

I was thinking about changing the rules, for example

<10 km -> YES

10…30 km -> resolves to percentage: 100 - (x - 10) * 5

But on the other hand, changing rules late in the game is a bad idea.

Upd.: I decided not to change resolution criteria.

@nikstar Don't change the rules please, people already invested based on the old ones.

@Irigi Yep, after sleeping on it, I decided not to change anything

@EmanuelRylke While they hold it, trump style “you keep what you hold” peace plans are probably unacceptable to Russia too. It’s also a major embarrassment for Putin, who can’t even hold his own territory, and can’t cover up that this is bad (given all the displaced people with families across the rest of the Russian empire). This war favours the defender in terms of attrition on troops and materiel, diverts Russian forces (even if they don’t retake it, they have to defend to stop further Ukrainian gains), and reminds pUtin that things have gone not as he planned for 2.5 years of what was expected to be a “few week war”.

The war must end in Moscow, because of politics (unless the west capitulates and we move to a very very very gradual shift to a guerilla war).