Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty signed by the United States and Russia in 2010. The treaty imposes limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear arms, though it does not limit the number of operationally inactive warheads. See below for the treaty limits and the September 2022 data on actual deployments:

Type Limit US Russia Deployed missiles and bombers 700 659 540 Deployed warheads (RVs and bombers) 1,550 1420 1549 Deployed and non-deployed launchers (missile tubes and bombers) 800 800 759

The treaty also includes verification and transparency measures to ensure compliance with its terms. The New START treaty replaced the START treaty, which had expired in 2009. The treaty was extended in 2021 for five years by the United States and Russia, maintaining its limits on nuclear arms.

In early February 2023, the U.S. State Department reported that Russia was in "noncompliance" with the treaty because it refused to allow on-site inspections and had cancelled a meeting of the Bilateral Consultative Commission, a body the treaty established to address such concerns.

On February 21, 2023, Vladimir Putin announced in his State of the Nation address that Russia was suspending its participation in the treaty, suggesting that it will not permit inspections or meet with U.S. representatives via the Bilateral Consultative Commission. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Russia will continue to honor the New START limits.

Will the US claim Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

This question resolves as "Yes" if, before 2025, reputable sources report that US officials have concluded Russia has exceeded New START's limits.

The question will also resolve as "Yes" if Russia itself announces it will no longer abide by New START limits.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

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