Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves Yes if any single candidate not running for the Democratic or Republican party receives 15% or more of the national popular vote, and No if one does not

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.