1,000
3.00Atlantic and guardian calling for Biden to put pressure on Israel to get rid of him:
Netanyahu's support for prime minister has drop by ~15% since October 7th. Projected seats for his party have dropped from ~27 to ~17.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Israeli_legislative_election
As soon as the war's over he's gone.
Not clear if this made it to Netanyahu's desk, but: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html
@DouglasCampbell When Israel was founded, the government enacted compulsory conscription into the military for all Jews (of all genders) for 2+ years, with an exemption carved out for Orthodox Jews who study Torah as a full-time “job.” This compromise enshrined the existing balance of secular & religious interests into law, earning the backing of all Jews to successfully establish the state. Increasingly lately, secular Israelis have pushed for the exemption to end in the interest of equally distributing the burden of military service. Haredi Jews (Orthodox Jews with a more insular lifestyle) defend the exemption because they believe that G-d desires Torah study so much that He will protect Israel in its merit.
@oh Ah, yes, I knew this, but didn't know orthodox Jews were called Haredi. What are the chances Bibi drafts the Haredi right now? So far, from the outside at least, although information is scarce, it doesn't look like the IDF has had too difficult a go of it in northern Gaza.
@DouglasCampbell I guess, a related question, would a man who managed to cling to power for the better part of 20 years do something that would effectively force his own ouster?
@DouglasCampbell He won't really have much of a choice. In Israel, the executive is weaker than in America. If anything, his own party will bolt on him. He won't be able to keep the coalition together. Unlike in America, Israel has a huge tradition of people from the ruling party bolting, breaking, betraying, and so on.
@nathanwei Why would a Haredi party leave the coalition in that situation? Presumably they could just stay and Gantz wouldn't have the votes necessary to pass said legislation. Also Bibi wouldn't agree to Gantzs demand so the vote wouldn't be brought in the first place. And of course if Gantz chooses to leave the coalition still has a majority unless others also leave.
I agree Bibi won't maintain power but I don't think it'll have anything to do with Haredi draft legislation.
@CelebratedWhale Right, in that case though it would hasten defections from Likud since especially after 10/7 Likud voters won't be too happy about the Haredi draft. I was less trying to say "here's exactly XYZ what will happen" and more trying to say that Bibi has to balance 10 impossible things to stay in power.
@nathanwei curious on your views now. So far, it seems he's balanced those things to stay in power.
@DouglasCampbell That was before October 7. He also has given up on the judicial reform and the court struck down the one aspect of it that did go through. I am going to buy more no.
@DouglasCampbell I sold some Netanyahu shares at 60% in a different market and bought more no here at 80%. I didn't expect them to wait so long for the Rafah operation. But I think it's not a done deal at all and he might be gone by EOY. I think the market is fairly priced around now at 70%. Here I've spent 33 Mana but my expectation is 38 Mana for +5 in total. So I think I'm doing OK.
@WieDan That's brutal. I wonder if a "countdown timer" can be embedded and if that helps. For example, for this market,
@firstuserhere Would def help if only for the visual clue. I'm both dyslexic and I'm not treating manifold seriously enough. For other affair I generally know I need to accommodate my handicap and read everything 3x before doing anything. for manifold I'm often hasty and my handicap kicks in.
@WieDan Reading everything 3X can be a valuable thing as well! This reminds me a bit of Gary Alford, an IRS agent who read everything 3 times, never less, never more. This gave him a strong power of recall and ability to find errors way better than others in whatever he was reading, not to mention a good attention to detail in general.
From this verge article
one of his chief confidantes is an undercover DEA agent who begins stealing from him; and the man who discovers his true identity is a nerdy IRS agent who reads every sentence three times.
@WieDan Just curious. I see Netanyahu is quite unpopular. How do we go from "Netanyahu is unpopular" to "Netanyahu is no longer President" exactly? He is not obliged to hold an election in 2024. Will the right wing of Likud bail on him? Perhaps just after prosecuting a successful war? Wouldn't LIkud get killed if they held another election? What is the impeachment process like, and what are the requirements?
@DouglasCampbell Israeli politics are weird. “Early elections can be called by a vote of the majority of Knesset members, or by an edict of the President, and normally occur on occasions of political stalemate and of the inability of the government to get the parliament's support for its policies. Failure to get the annual budget bill approved by the Knesset by March 31 (3 months after the start of the fiscal year) also leads automatically to early elections” (Wikipedia).
@DouglasCampbell Likud has 32/120 seats, and calling for new elections only requires 61 votes.
@oh Thanks. And, Lidud's right-wing partners gave him 64 seats or so. Question, would any of those right-wing partners be likely to bail on him? (Presumably, they've likely commented on this already?)
@DouglasCampbell Another follow-up. If Likud's right-wing allies bailed and called for a new election, and Likud gets thrashed as expected, then wouldn't Likud's right-wing allies be likely to also lose seats and then be out of power? The right hates Netanyahu that much that they would self-sabotage just to harm Netanyahu? I know nothing of Israeli politics, just curious what people who know more think.
@DouglasCampbell Gantz will bail on him, and the Haredim will bail on him over Haredi-related issues.