What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 4?
What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 4?
Basic
21
Ṁ19092029
32%
Lithuania
20%
Estonia
17%
Poland
12%
Turkiye
9%
---no Article 4 before 2030---
3%
Finland
3%
Greece
1.8%
Ukraine
1.4%
Latvia
"Article 4 of NATO Treaty:
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."
Article 4 of the NATO treaty covers the case when a member state feels threatened by another country or a terrorist organization. The 30 member states then start formal consultations at the request of the threatened member. The talks look at whether a threat exists and how to counter it, with decisions arrived at unanimously. Article 4 does not, however, mean that there will be direct pressure to act. Since the Alliance’s creation in 1949, Article 4 has been invoked several times.
((Market works no longer than till 2030.)
other Article 4 markets:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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