Discourse 2024: The U.S. and Iran in a direct shooting war?
Basic
5
Ṁ329Jan 14
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is based on predictions What's Coming in 2024 by the Discourse Magazine editorial team
---
If the resolution is not obvious, the editorial team and author of the prediction will be asked to resolve in his most honest judgement.
If there is no answer from the Discourse by January 30 2025, @itsTomekK + community judgement will be used.
You are welcome to help shape precise resolution criteria in comments 🙏
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
"Predictions" without probabilities attached to them are sooooooo boring.
Edit: also it's not on you (or us) to make precise predictions, it's on predictors.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the US be at war with Iran before the end of 2025
14% chance
When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
Will the US bomb sites in Iran in 2024
3% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2025?
10% chance
Given who wins the US election, will there be American soldiers in Iran before 2026?
In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?
2% chance