What will be the 30-year real annualized return of the S&P 500 ending 2054-01-01?
What will be the 30-year real annualized return of the S&P 500 ending 2054-01-01?
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Ṁ302054
5.91
expected
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The worst S&P 500 real annual return for any 30-year period going back to 1926 was less than 2%. The best was over 10%. What will the 30-year real annualized return be for the S&P 500 between January 1st, 2024 and January 1st, 2054?
Resolution will be based on https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio using SPY with dividends reinvested, or a similar website/fund if necessary.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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