2025 Australian election: Labor outperforms 2022 result?
11
Ṁ565May 15
54%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It's rare for an Australian government not to lose vote share after their first term.
Will the 2025 election be an exception?
Resolves YES if The Australian Labor party gets a national two-party-preferred vote share larger than 52.132745% (their 2022 result) in the 2025 Australian federal election.
Data source is final numbers from the Australian Electoral Commission.
(image source: Antony Green, ABC)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Labor win the 2025 Australian federal election?
83% chance
In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?
44% chance
Next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 federal election
Peter Dutton retains seat in 2025 Australian election?
61% chance
What will be the results of the 2025 Canadian federal election?
Will Anthony Albanese be the Prime Minister of Australia at the end of 2025?
79% chance
Will Anthony Albanese remain the leader of the Australian Labor Party through to the end of October 2025?
80% chance
Which parties will increase their percentage of the primary vote at the next Australian Federal Election?
Which party or coalition will win the national two-party-preferred count at the 2025 Australian federal election?
Which seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next general election for the House of Representatives?