As of the end of 2023, the legal landscape for cannabis in the United States has undergone significant changes, marking a departure from previous years. Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only 9 states and DC. Additionally, medical marijuana has been legalized in 40 states and the District of Columbia. Given the growing acceptance and legalization of cannabis at the state level, there is increasing debate and speculation about potential changes to its federal classification. (thanks Metaculus for writing this paragraph)

The US government provides yearly reports of drug usage based on surveys. For example, the results of the 2022 survey are here, where the government reported that 61.9 million people have used marijuana at least once in 2022, up from 53.1 million in 2021. Other survey data can be found from this link.

The question they used for the survey is “Have you ever, even once, used marijuana or any cannabis product?” and “How long has it been since you last used marijuana or any cannabis product?”

If marijuana is not legalized in the US before 2025, how many people will try marijuana at least once in 2025?

If marijuana is legalized in the US, resolves N/A. If it is not, this market will resolve once the results of the 2025 survey are out.

This market will use the following Metaculus source to determine whether marijuana is legalized in the US before 2025.