Will the letter be shown to the public?
This market resolves YES if there is a picture of this letter available to the public (in any form) by the end of July, and there is a consensus of credible media reporting that the picture is genuine. Resolves NO otherwise.
The picture does not need to exactly the match the description of the letter in the article, it just needs to be sufficiently clear that it's the letter the article is describing.
Whether or not it is revealed that the letter is written by Trump does not matter for the purposes of this market. The WSJ is describing a physical letter. What matters is if there is a picture of that letter (not its author).
It's fine if some parts of the letter aren't visible in the picture, let's say the ~majority of the letter should be visible.
Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has clarified how visibility will be judged:
Censored portions of the letter will be counted as not visible.
The market will resolve NO if 50% or more of the letter is not visible (including from censorship).
1,000
3.00@EvanDaniel yeah, i'll count anything censored as part of what's not visible. (it would be weird if they showed a pic of the letter with a full 50%+ of it censored, but i think it's better for the market to resolve NO in that case, because my curiosity here is "will i see this letter" and at 50%+ that's basically me not seeing the letter)