This market’s prob. is insane, but it’s only accurate to within… (checks notes) … 80% of the true value, assuming a discount rate of 5% over 16 years. So, I’d estimate the true probability would lie between 0% and 100%.

@benshindel I agree, insanely high market price

If someone wants to buy NO around 85% prices I can provide liquidity. just not placing limit orders in advance bc I'm low balance and I need to sell some positions before the limit orders do anything

Just got out of this, no need to have the Mana locked up.

How will this resolve in the case of something sleep-like such as meditation entirely replacing sleep

Sleep is so cringe, save me science. I'll get a brain implant, I'll let you edit my genes, I'll do whatever you say

@Tumbles oh yeah if the tech requires genetic engineering and only works on new babies (can't be done on living humans) that would probably resolve this YES? and seems kinda doable, some freaks of nature ~don't sleep iirc?

I know a guy who claims meditation allows him to sleep only an hour or two per night, for the last few years. Mid thirties I think, hippy type, god at melee.

Maybe someday @Mira will unexpectedly erase all my sleep debt like they did my mana debt

@Tumbles that stuff spooks me, I don't understand this mystical power. does he not have psychosis? does he implicitly replace his sleep with hours of restorative mindlessness? I am confused. the average person trying to sleep 1-2 hours per night probably goes insane after days or weeks right? i don't have a great sense of this

@Bayesian Hard to say... they kind of are insane, but not the kind of insane you would expect from someone hardcore sleep deprived. They are a good conversationalist, capable of paying attention without effort. I kind of assume their meditation is a little bit more sleepish than some people

@Tumbles woah, that is interesting. I am wondering things

@Tumbles I'll give you some of the Modafinil I got from a shady Indian site if you need it. It'll keep you "woke" in your battle against prediction market libertarians.

@JonathanRay your limit orders were cancelled btw. happy to take more of them if you wanna put them back up, up to you tho

@Bayesian They’re back up

There is a lot of free mana right here. It's going to resolve NO if we're still alive by then, and it's at 90%. It'll also only be going down over time.

(Oops, never mind, misread something about resolution criteria.)

Come at me YES buyers, I've left a big limit order at 90%.

This is super obvious

it would be an overstatement to say that humanity will somehow invent a technology that will contradict our normal living standards.

@Zesharwama >What is agriculture?

@Zesharwama question is when, i kind of doubt it will go that fast. Science barely even understands how our brains work at this point. Even why we sleep is not fully understood in itself, lol.