Resolution criteria (please copy into the description)

• What counts:

  • The U.S. Food & Drug Administration issues an approval letter (NDA, sNDA, or BLA) for any product whose active ingredient is retatrutide, for any indication (obesity, diabetes, etc.).

  • The approval date is the one shown on FDA’s Drugs@FDA page or in the official FDA/Eli Lilly press release.

  • Accelerated or priority reviews are fine — as long as the outcome is “Approved.”

• What does not count:

  • Fast-Track, Breakthrough, or other designations without a final approval.

  • Compassionate-use, expanded-access, or clinical-trial supply.

  • Compounded or “grey-market” retatrutide.

• How it resolves:

  • The market resolves to the calendar date bucket in which the first qualifying approval occurs.

  • If no approval is granted by 31 Dec 2029 the market resolves to “2030 or later / never.”

  • Primary source: FDA’s “Drugs@FDA” database. Backup sources: FDA press releases, Eli Lilly investor news.