What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups?
What will happen with the recent lawsuits by major record labels against AI music startups?
Plus
10
Ṁ12002026
44%
Udio or Suno will shutdown services temporarily
36%
Udio or Suno will shutdown services permanently
64%
A lawsuit reaches a settlement
46%
A lawsuit reaches trial
63%
A lawsuit reaches judgment
28%
A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the defendant
37%
A lawsuit reaches judgment in favor of the plaintiff
31%
A lawsuit is dismissed
73%
Training data is leaked or disclosed publicly by the court
31%
A lawsuit expands to include Microsoft as a defendant
69%
Microsoft drops its partnership with Suno
20%
A Billboard Top-100 Artist testifies at trial
Some labels, including Sony, Universal, and Warner, have started lawsuits against Udio and Suno.
Here's the RIAA press release. It looks like they're managing the lawsuits for the plaintiffs.
All outcomes that happen resolve YES. Any outcomes that don't happen by the end of these lawsuits will resolve NO. We'll have to keep an eye on when that might be.
Notes (may add more here as clarifications are needed):
"Billboard Top-100 Artist" or "Billboard 100 Artist" is any musician presently on Billboard's list of top 100 musicians, whatever it's called at the time, at the time of trial
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will some U.S. musicians be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
39% chance
Will Spotify create a record label and release AI-generated songs by 2026?
27% chance
Will some U.S. artists be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?
92% chance
How many listed companies will have been sued for copyright over AI, and have the trial resolved, before 2025?
2.5
How many listed companies will have been sued for copyright over AI, and have a trial date announced, before 2025?
2.7
How many companies on this list will have been sued on copyright grounds over their use of AI before 2025?
7.7
Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?
70% chance
Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?
20% chance
Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?
25% chance
Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?
64% chance