Will we have a Humanoid comparable to humans by EOY 2027?
Will we have a Humanoid comparable to humans by EOY 2027?
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I will list 20 criteria that define "comparable to humans" in the next few months. For now, the list is incomplete.
It is super hard to come up with the list since the history of AI development tells us that we cannot predict what will be easy or hard for AI.
The humanoid needs to pass 16 of them for the market to resolve YES
run 6m/s
60cm/24-inch running vertical jump
do a wok tossing
peel an apple
zero-shot hiking on mountain trails
crack a walnut without breaking it
latte art
Dodge a punch and jab back immediately
…
It needs to be the same model with the same software/hardware, i.e., can't fine-tune for a specific task.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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