This market resolves YES if Russian forces deliberately use physical force (missiles, bullets, drones, explosives, etc.) that causes damage, injury, or death to:

• NATO territory (land, sea, airspace), or

• NATO military personnel or equipment, anywhere in the world.

To count, the attack must be publicly blamed on Russia by at least two of these within 30 days:

• NATO Secretary-General

• U.S. President or Defense Secretary

• UK, French, or German defense ministries

• Official NATO statements

If no official attribution is made, or if NATO says the incident was accidental or unclear, the market resolves NO.

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What doesn’t count:

• Cyberattacks, jamming, propaganda

• Accidental strikes that NATO says were unintentional

• Russian retaliation to a direct first strike by NATO (i.e., if NATO bombs Russia first)

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Clarifying Edge Cases

• If NATO countries send weapons or support (e.g. to Ukraine), and Russia retaliates directly against NATO, it counts as a first attack from Russia

• If Ukraine Joins NATO:

• - Fighting that started before Ukraine becomes a NATO member doesn’t count.

• - Russian attacks that happen after Ukraine officially joins NATO do count.

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2025/05/08/would-vladimir-putin-attack-nato