Will Astrobotic's Astrobotic Mission 3 mission successfully land on the moon?
Will Astrobotic's Astrobotic Mission 3 mission successfully land on the moon?
Basic
3
Ṁ302027
55%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Astrobotic Technology is a private spaceflight company. The Griffin lander has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon. It should launch in 2026.
For a successful mission the lander needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.
Mission 3 is preceeded by Griffin Mission 1 and Peregrine.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
74% chance
Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?
58% chance
Will Intuitive Machine's IM-3 mission successfully land on the moon?
73% chance
Will ispace's Hakuto-R M2 mission successfully land on the moon?
73% chance
Will Roscosmos's Luna 27 mission successfully land on the moon?
37% chance
Will Intuitive Machine's IM-2 mission successfully land on the moon?
67% chance
Will ispace's SERIES 2 mission successfully land on the moon?
56% chance
Will NASA's Artemis 3 mission be successful?
93% chance
Will ESA's HERACLES mission successfully land on the moon?
57% chance
Will Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost M1 mission successfully land on the moon?
70% chance