The creator is inactive. Do any of the holders have thoughts on how they think this market should resolve, or what you thought you were betting on?

I think it is something like, Joe Biden dies+resigns before January 20th 2025, or neither Biden+Trump wins the election.

@KevinBurke I think it resolves NO

@MartinRandall There is still a possibility that Trump dies before the inauguration, so it's not time to resolve yet, but I agree the probability ought to be like 2%, not 46%.

Sure feels like if either party replaced their nominee, their replacement would almost certainly win, resolving this YES. This might just be a proxy bet on whether either party replaces their candidate, which seems like a long shot but maybe higher than 4%.

chances are very low, but I've put up some limit orders if you want more NO

To be clear Biden can’t be the “next president” if he’s inaugurated again in January 2025 because he’s currently the president.

I suspect what you mean to say is “someone besides Biden or Trump is inaugurated in January 2025, and/or Biden resigns/dies in office”