When will the current pope (fransis) die
When will the current pope (fransis) die
Basic
30
Ṁ21952026
47%
Jan 2026 or later
10%
April 2025
7%
May 2025
6%
March 2025
5%
August 2025
5%
July 2025
4%
October 2025
4%
November 2025
4%
June 2025
4%
September 2025
2%
December 2025
This will relate to the news going out of the pope dying,
for example - the pope dies today but they keep it silent for 2 weeks, the question will resolve in 2 weeks on that date.
Also, if he abdicates and then dies i will still resolve as if he was pope
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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