Will the global dollar reserve share be lower than 55% by 1/1/2030?
Basic
4
Ṁ282030
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves be above 55% in the 2029 data release or before?
Context:
"Yes" argument:
There are no remotely worthy successors. The next most common reserve, the Euro, is likely in worse shape than the dollar.
"No" argument:
"Proponents of [dollar] regime change point to the steady fall in the dollar’s share of central banks’ foreign exchange reserves. That stood at around 59% in 2022, down from over 70% in 1999, according to the International Monetary Fund." - https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2023-02-28/
Truth source will be IMF COFER survey data, or nearest equivalent if the IMF doesn't report on this by then.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the dollar lose its leading reserve currency status by 2040?
30% chance
Will the USD stop being the world's reserve currency by 2030?
16% chance
Will any currency overtake the US dollar in international trade by 2050?
62% chance
Will the US dollar still be the global reserve currency at the beginning of 2030?
89% chance
What denominations of the US Dollar will be issued by the US government in 2030?
Will Bitcoin become US Treasury reserve asset by 2030?
58% chance
What will be the world's RESERVE CURRENCY by 2025?
Will the US dollar fall to 0.000004 BTC before 2030?
39% chance
What will be the world's RESERVE CURRENCY by 2035?
Will BRICS currency/ies compose at least 30% of reserves and trade by 2030
59% chance