From https://metaculus.com/questions/16704/us-china-military-conflict-in-2024/

US-China relations have been tense in recent years due to trade disputes, regional security concerns, and ideological differences. The trade war began in 2018, with both countries imposing tariffs on each other. The South China Sea has been a flashpoint for regional security, with China claiming sovereignty and the US conducting freedom of navigation operations. Ideological rifts include issues like human rights and democracy. Despite tensions, full-scale war would have severe global consequences. This question predicts whether active warfare between the US and China will occur in 2024.